Click to open: The Eighty Year Periodicity of Scientific Revolutions and What It Means for the Cold Fusion Field, ICCF14 Conference Proceedings 2008
This article explained the Kondratieff Wave theory to an audience of scientists and explained how the model can be used to prognosticate how the cold fusion field would progress.
Here was the economic prediction based on the model in the article in 2008:
I predicted a depressionary period during which there would be a deep recession or a depression starting about 2009 that would be similar to the 1929 depression; that business and consumer debts would reach record highs during this decade, that there would be a surge of personal bankruptcies and mergers and corporate bankruptcies leading up to the depressionary period, that there would be a financial crisis which is happening now; and that unemployment and productivity growth rates would both increase, similar to the 1930s. This is happening too.
Based on the past trend, I predict that the depressionary period will last about 8 or 10 years, and that productivity growth will secularly increase until a peak about three decades or so from now, unless there is a disaster or war. A deep recession or depression is starting now.
The chart above shows the long-term labor productivity growth since 1800. Labor productivity growth also has an 80-year periodicity, and the dips occurred during the industrial revolutions of the late 1800s and the 1970s and 1980s. After 2008, labor productivity growth was increasing, and it reached a high of about 3% in 2010. After that, the effects of the unprecedented peacetime stimulus, borrowing, and government grant and subsidy measures caused the wages, employment, and consumption to stay high, so productivity growth rates declined as would not have happened if the process innovation of the technological acceleration stage had continued without these measures. Labor productivity growth rates would have continued rising during the depression era as happened in the US in the 1930s and Great Britain in the 1830s.
Lewis, E. The Eighty Year Periodicity of Scientific Revolutions and What It Means for the Cold Fusion Field in
ICCF-14 International Conference on Condensed Matter Nuclear Science, Washington DC, 20